Controlled Liquid Hydrogen Storage: The backbone of decentralized energy

The U.S. Court of Federal Claims on July 8, 2026, issued its long-awaited trial order on remand in Alta Wind I Owner Lessor C, et al. v. United States, resolving a 13-year dispute over approximately $1 billion in cash grants awarded under Section 1603 of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA). The decision addresses a fundamental question in tax controversy and valuation practice: How should a court allocate purchase price among asset classes under the residual method of Internal Revenue Code (IRC) Section 1060 when the parties present competing valuation methodologies – and, critically, whether the anticipated value of a contingent tax benefit (here, the Section 1603 cash grant) may be included in the fair market value of the tangible assets whose basis determines that benefit.

The court's holding carries significant implications for taxpayers involved in renewable energy tax incentive disputes, Section 1060 purchase price allocations and any tax controversy in which income-based and cost-based valuation approaches compete.

Background and Procedural History

Section 1603 of ARRA provided eligible taxpayers with a cash grant equal to 30 percent of the "basis of the tangible personal property" of qualifying renewable energy facilities placed in service during the applicable period. The program was designed to incentivize renewable energy investment during the 2008 financial crisis by providing a direct cash payment in lieu of production or investment tax credits.

The Alta Wind facilities are six wind energy projects located in the Tehachapi region of California that were subject to 25-year power purchase agreements (PPAs) The plaintiffs applied for more than $703 million in Section 1603 grants using an "unallocated" basis method. The U.S. Department of the Treasury rejected that methodology and awarded approximately $495 million based on grant-eligible construction and development costs. The plaintiffs filed suit in 2013 seeking the roughly $206 million difference; the government counterclaimed for an alleged overpayment of approximately $58.9 million.

At the first trial, the court awarded the plaintiffs the full $206 million, finding that the entire purchase price (minus land) constituted basis and that neither goodwill nor going-concern value attached to the transactions – and, therefore, that the residual method of IRC § 1060 did not apply.

The Federal Circuit's Remand Instructions

In 2018, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit reversed and remanded in Alta Wind I Owner Lessor C v. United States, 897 F.3d 1365 (Fed. Cir. 2018). The appellate court held that the Alta transactions were "applicable asset acquisitions" under IRC § 1060 because three Treasury Department regulation factors were present: 1) intangible assets existed, 2) the total consideration exceeded the aggregate book value of the purchased assets and 3) related transactions (leases and licenses) were part of the deal. Accordingly, the purchase price had to be allocated among the seven asset classes prescribed by Treas. Reg. § 1.338-6(b) using the "residual method": consideration flows sequentially from Class I (cash) through Class V (all other tangible assets), then Class VI (Section 197 intangibles, excluding goodwill) and, finally, Class VII (goodwill and going-concern value). The parties had agreed that only classes V, VI and VII were at issue – and, thus, Class V (eligible) versus VI and VII (ineligible).

The Federal Circuit directed the trial court to make "a factual determination as to the allocation of purchase price" and specifically to "distinguish between turn-key value and goodwill and other intangibles." The court adopted the definition of "turn-key value" from Miami Valley Broadcasting Corp. v. United States, 499 F.2d 677, 680 (Ct. Cl. 1974): The incremental value a buyer would pay for assurance that plant and equipment would work together without costly or time-consuming adjustments. Turnkey value is treated as part of Class V tangible assets, not as a separate intangible.

Holland & Knight’s expert insight: Critically, the Federal Circuit expressly left open whether the value of anticipated Section 1603 cash grants is separable from the value of the windfarms' tangible personal property – setting up the central question at retrial.

The Court's Key Holding

The court rejected the plaintiffs' income/discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation approach and held that the fair market value of the grant-eligible Class V tangible assets should be determined using the government's cost approach, as modified by the court to correct certain exclusions. Specifically, the court held:

• The plaintiffs failed to adduce sufficient evidence that the fair market value of grant-eligible tangible assets should include nearly 98 percent of the anticipated cash grant's value; the inclusion was impermissibly circular and unsupported by empirical market evidence.
• The anticipated Section 1603 cash grant value is not allocable to Class V tangible property under the Section 1060 residual method. The grant is a lump-sum reimbursement of eligible-asset costs, not itself a component of those assets' fair market value.
• The anticipated cash grant does not constitute "turn-key value" because the plaintiffs presented no evidence that the grant reflected the incremental value a buyer would pay for assurance that the facility's tangible assets would work together.
• The cost approach – starting from grant-eligible costs in the cost segregation reports, including interest during construction and the Oak Creek development fee, and applying a developer-profit markup (15 percent for Alta I and 20 percent for Alta II through VI) – best calculates the value of grant-eligible assets consistent with the Federal Circuit's remand instructions. This was a factual determination by the court.
• DCF is not inherently defective as a valuation methodology under Section 1060; the flaw in the plaintiffs' case was evidentiary, not methodological.

Significance for Tax Controversy and Dispute Resolution

The Alta Wind decision carries broad significance for tax controversy practitioners beyond the Section 1603 context:

• Evidentiary Rigor in Valuation Disputes. The decision reinforces that in disputes governed by Section 1060's residual method, taxpayers bear a demanding evidentiary burden to support any valuation methodology with market-based, asset class-specific evidence – not merely theoretical financial models. Generalized assumptions about how income streams should be allocated among asset classes will not suffice where the record lacks empirical support for the specific allocation advanced – i.e. a factual inquiry, hence evidentiary, not a per se legal/methodological dispute.
• Circularity as a Fatal Flaw. The court's rejection of the plaintiffs' DCF approach on circularity grounds sends a clear signal: Where a valuation methodology uses the value of a tax benefit as an input to determine the basis on which that same benefit is calculated, courts will apply heightened scrutiny and demand affirmative evidence that the approach produces reliable, noncircular results.
• Cost Approaches Remain Powerful. The decision confirms that well-supported cost-based valuations – particularly those grounded in contemporaneous cost segregation studies prepared for regulatory or administrative purposes – can prevail over sophisticated income/DCF approaches, especially where the income methodology relies on assumptions that conflate distinct asset classes or attribute contingent benefits to tangible property without empirical market support.
• Consistency Across Proceedings Matters. The court's reliance on the plaintiffs' California property-tax filings – which characterized the cash grant as "separable and unrelated to the operations" – to undermine their litigation position underscores the enduring principle that inconsistent characterizations of asset or benefit values across different proceedings create significant litigation risk.
• DCF Is Not Per Se Improper Under Section 1060. Importantly, the court declined to adopt the government's broadest argument that DCF should never be applied in Section 1060 allocation disputes involving multiclass asset streams. The flaw was evidentiary, not methodological. This preserves room for well-supported DCF approaches in future disputes – but taxpayers must present rigorous, record-supported evidence connecting the income analysis to specific asset classes.

Holland & Knight | https://www.hklaw.com/en

Following a year of community solar growth in Illinois, Aligned Climate Capital (Aligned) has acquired Armoracia, a 7.3 MW DC community solar project in Collinsville Township, IL., through its Aligned Solar Partners (ASP) strategy. The project will deploy Planted's innovative power deployment platform across a 16-acre site. Armoracia will serve subscribers through the Illinois Adjustable Block Program on the Ameren Illinois grid and is expected to reach commercial operation later this year. The project combines Aligned’s execution and operations expertise with Planted’s platform, demonstrating how integrated solar deployment can work at scale in community solar.

“This acquisition matters because it helps establish Planted’s platform as financeable infrastructure at commercial scale. Their platform is built for land-efficient deployment, making solar work on sites where conventional approaches would require significantly more land,” said Peter Davidson, CEO of Aligned Climate Capital. “Until now, developers have had a limited ability to commit a real pipeline to Planted projects without an institutional buyer prepared to finance construction and own the assets. Aligned’s acquisition of Armoracia helps solve that problem and creates a financing precedent for the technology at commercial scale.”

Currently under construction, the 16-acre ground-mount project combines community solar generation with continued productive land use through Planted’s high-density terrain-following arrays, which require no grading and leave more room for agricultural activities, pollinator habitat and other compatible uses within and around the array. Planted combines powerful software, terrain-following arrays, and field automation into a single system to deploy faster on the sites that constrain most community solar development: irregular parcels, moderate slopes, and limited acreage.

"Community solar runs on tight land budgets and execution certainty," said Eric Brown, CEO of Planted. "Armoracia puts 7.3 MW on 16 acres and leaves the land usable long after the array's life. That's the kind of outcome Aligned's holistic approach makes available to the broader community solar market."

Aligned Solar Partners acquires distributed solar and energy storage projects from development partners across the U.S., finances their build-out, and manages the assets over time. The strategy focuses on middle-market solar projects that are larger than typical rooftop systems but smaller than utility-scale developments. These projects can serve local energy demand through community solar, commercial and industrial, net metering, or other state-based programs.

Armoracia establishes a financing structure for Planted projects that developers can now point to. Community solar developers interested in bringing Planted into their pipeline can learn more at plantedsolar.com or reach out directly to discuss site compatibility.

Planted Solar | plantedsolar.com

Aligned Climate Capital | https://alignedclimatecapital.com/

ECL and PowerCell Group AB (publ) announced a strategic partnership to deploy industrial-grade hydrogen fuel cell power across ECL's AI data center platform. The agreement comprises a firm purchase order for PowerCell PS190 fuel cell systems, alongside a separate non-binding memorandum of understanding between ECL and PowerCell for approximately 300 MW of additional hydrogen fuel cell capacity as ECL expands its FlexGrid data center footprint. The partnership is underpinned by PowerCell's industrial partnership with Bosch, its manufacturing partner and largest shareholder, which provides the manufacturing foundation to deliver at industrial scale.

Initial deployment begins at ECL's 35MW CSC-1 campus in Santa Clara, California, where containerized PowerCell fuel cell systems will integrate into ECL's FlexGrid microgrid architecture alongside grid power, natural gas and battery storage. The deployment expands on an existing PowerCell deployment at ECL's MV-1 facility in Mountain View, California, where hydrogen has been used as the primary power source for more than two years.

“We evaluated multiple fuel cell technologies under real operating conditions over two years at our MV-1 facility before selecting PowerCell and Bosch,” said Yuval Bachar, founder and CEO of ECL. “This is not a pilot or a proof of concept. We are deploying these PowerCell PS190 units with the operational data to back it up, and we are signing an MOU for an additional 300 MW because the demand from AI operators for power in constrained markets far exceeds what any single grid connection can deliver.”

PowerCell, which spun out of the Volvo Group, brings more than 25 years of fuel cell experience and over one million hours of field data across automotive, marine and stationary power applications. Bosch, PowerCell's largest shareholder and strategic manufacturing partner, provides large-scale production capability and U.S.-based service infrastructure to support ECL deployments.

“ECL is among the very few operators who not only run hydrogen in production but understand how to orchestrate it intelligently alongside storage and other energy sources as one integrated system,” said Richard Berkling, CEO of PowerCell Group. “Our firm order for PowerCell PS190 systems, alongside our broader non-binding MOU, sends a clear signal that hydrogen-powered AI data centers are moving from first-of-kind toward industrial scale.”

Bosch supports this scalable approach by providing the industrial manufacturing foundation. The company also delivers the local North American service needed to integrate these hydrogen systems into core data center infrastructure. “Bringing hydrogen fuel cells to industrial scale requires more than strong technology; it requires manufacturing discipline, predictable quality and dependable lifecycle support,” said Thilo Müller, Senior Vice President Fuel Cell Business at Bosch. “Bosch is proud to bring that industrial foundation to the partnership with PowerCell and ECL. Our goal is to turn promising technology into reliable, long-term infrastructure.”

PowerCell's Distributed Master Controller platform will integrate with ECL's Lightning real-time management system to manage dynamic load balancing across fuel cells, batteries, the grid, and natural gas at each FlexGrid site.

ECL is accepting tenant inquiries for AI infrastructure deployments in 2027-2028. 

ECL | www.ecldc.com

PowerCell | www.powercellgroup.com

Bosch Power Solutions | https://www.manufacturing-co-intelligence.com/

Technology group Wärtsilä has signed a ten-year optimised maintenance agreement with Midwest Energy, a customer-owned cooperative, located in Hays, Kansas, United States. The agreement covers the 104 MW Goodman Energy Center, located in Ellis County, operating with natural-gas fuelled Wärtsilä 34SG engines. The plant primarily serves as a flexible balancing power plant, responding to fluctuations in load and non-dispatchable generation, to support the regional power grid. The agreement order was booked by Wärtsilä in Q2 2026.

“Maintaining operational efficiency is critical to our ability to provide reliable power to our customers in the Southwest Power Pool (SPP),” says Aaron Rome, Vice President of Energy Supply, Midwest Energy. “The Goodman facility utilizes Wärtsilä engines as the prime mover, so it makes sense to have the OEM provider plan, supervise, and support all required major maintenance activities associated with those engines.”

Under the terms of the agreement, Wärtsilä will provide field services, spare parts, remote support, control system patching, and assist with maintenance planning. Also included is Expert Insight, Wärtsilä’s unique digital predictive maintenance product that enables customer support to be delivered proactively by Wärtsilä Expertise Centres.

“Wärtsilä’s long-term service agreements are designed to deliver tangible benefits to the customer. They help facilities maintain operational efficiency, ensuring reliable power for communities and businesses. As a key element of Wärtsilä’s Lifecycle services, these agreements also support improved asset performance, reduced operational risk and greater long-term predictability,” comments Kees de Grijs, General Manager, Business Development, Agreements and Upgrades, North America at Wärtsilä Energy. “The support we provide encompasses the company’s technology, software, service expertise, and our thorough understanding of installations on a system level. This enables customers to take a more proactive approach to operations, optimise maintenance planning, and make informed decisions across the asset lifecycle.”

Midwest Energy is a customer-owned electric and natural gas cooperative, serving 92,000 electric and natural gas customers in 40 counties in central and western Kansas. 

Wärtsilä Energy | www.wartsila.com/energy

EVelution Energy LLC ("EVelution Energy"), a U.S. critical minerals company developing America's first commercial-scale, solar-powered cobalt metal and cobalt sulfate processing facility, announced that Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs has nominated the Yuma County census tract encompassing the Company's planned $450 million facility for successor designation as a Rural Qualified Opportunity Zone under the federal Opportunity Zone 2.0 ("OZ 2.0") program.

Upon certification by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the nomination is expected to make qualifying investments in the project eligible for enhanced Rural Opportunity Zone tax incentives beginning January 1, 2027, further strengthening the project's long-term investment framework as EVelution Energy advances permitting, financing and construction.

The nomination represents another significant milestone in the systematic de-risking of one of the more advanced domestic critical minerals processing projects currently under development in the United States.

“We are grateful to Governor Hobbs, the Arizona Commerce Authority, the Yuma County Economic Development Corporation, and Yuma County’s elected leadership for their continued support,” said Navaid Alam, President & CEO of EVelution Energy. “This nomination strengthens the long-term investment framework for America’s first commercial-scale, solar-powered cobalt processing facility and advances a project designed to support U.S. defense readiness, domestic manufacturing and critical minerals supply-chain resilience. It also demonstrates that nationally significant industrial development can proceed alongside responsible environmental stewardship.”

Supporting Long-Term Investment Through Opportunity Zone 2.0

The Opportunity Zone 2.0 program, which takes effect on January 1, 2027, builds on the original Opportunity Zone framework by introducing enhanced tax incentives designed to attract long-term private investment to economically disadvantaged communities, particularly in rural areas. For nationally significant industrial projects such as EVelution Energy's planned cobalt processing facility, these enhanced incentives are intended to encourage additional private capital, job creation and long-term economic development.

Investments made prior to January 1, 2027, will continue to qualify under the existing OZ 1.0 framework, which provides deferral of eligible capital gains and potential exclusion of post-investment appreciation for long-term holdings.

OZ 2.0 provides enhanced incentives intended to attract long-term private capital to qualifying rural Opportunity Zones. Subject to applicable federal tax requirements, qualifying investments in rural Qualified Opportunity Zones beginning January 1, 2027 may be eligible for:

• Rolling five-year capital gains deferral
• Potential permanent exclusion of appreciation on qualifying Opportunity Zone investments held for the required period
• A 30% increase in tax basis for eligible Rural Opportunity Zone investments
• Accelerated depreciation deductions
• Potential elimination of depreciation recapture upon disposition of qualifying investments

Together, these incentives strengthen the long-term investment framework supporting EVelution Energy's $450 million cobalt processing facility and other strategically important rural industrial projects.

Advancing Project Development and Economic Impact

EVelution Energy’s $450 million Yuma County project is expected to generate approximately $1.2 billion in annual economic activity across the State of Arizona and support the creation of more than 6,200 direct, indirect and induced jobs over the life of the project. Located in a rural Qualified Opportunity Zone, the project is designed to bring long-term industrial investment, skilled employment and supply-chain activity to a rural part of Arizona targeted for economic development and community revitalization.

Workforce Development and Community Investment

EVelution Energy is working with Arizona Western College (AWC) to develop the first Critical Minerals Hydrometallurgical Processing Training Program in the United States, expected to be offered at AWC’s Wellton Manufacturing Training Center in Yuma County. The program is intended to prepare local workers for skilled jobs in critical minerals processing and advanced manufacturing while supporting the facility’s long-term workforce requirements.

Best-in-Class Sustainable Processing Facility

EVelution Energy’s facility is being designed to minimize its environmental footprint through on-site solar generation and battery storage, closed-loop water management, no on-site tailings storage and off-site disposal of process residues at a licensed facility. The closed-loop system is designed to recycle approximately 70% of process water, positioning the project among the most water-efficient critical minerals processing facilities under development in North America.

Continued Project De-Risking and Strategic Alignment

The nomination for successor designation builds on a series of previously announced milestones that collectively continue to de-risk the development of EVelution Energy’s project, including:

• Receipt of zoning approvals and Special Use Permits for both the planned cobalt processing facility and the project's 28 MW solar and battery energy storage facilities
• Strategic feedstock supply frameworks, long-term commercial offtake arrangements and continued advancement of export credit agency financing initiatives supporting future project development
• Commencement of construction of the project’s 28 MW solar facility

Together, these developments reflect continued progress across permitting, construction, financing and commercial development, positioning the project as one of the most advanced efforts to establish secure domestic cobalt processing capacity in the United States, aligned with U.S. defense industrial base priorities and broader national supply chain security objectives.

Construction of the planned cobalt processing facility is expected to commence in early 2027, with completion targeted by the end of 2029.

EVelution Energy | www.evelutionenergy.com

The Renewable Energy Statistics 2026 released by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) shows that renewable electricity generation grew by 9.8% in 2024 — significantly higher than the growth rate recorded in 2023.

Non-renewables continued to fall behind with an increase of 1.4% over the same period. Overall, renewables accounted for 31.7% of the electricity generation globally in 2024, totaling 9 836 terawatt hours (TWh). 

Drawing on IRENA’s roadmap, the incoming COP31 Presidency of Türkiye has announced a global electrification target of 35% of final energy demand by 2035 as part of its Action Agenda. The newly released power generation data clearly show that achieving this ambition would require renewables to increase their share in global electricity generation from 31.7% in 2024 to 78% by 2035 — around 2.5 times today’s level.

Commenting on the new dataset, IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera said: “The world is rallying behind electrification as a cornerstone of the energy transition, with renewable electricity as its driving force. Growing support for global electrification reflects a shared recognition that clean electricity strengthens energy security, resilience and competitiveness. This will require renewable electricity generation to expand at an unprecedented pace over the next decade —around 2.5 times today's level. Technologies are available, the economics are compelling. Now we must swiftly shift from fossil fuels to clean electricity across buildings, transport and industry.”

Simon Stiell, the Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) added: “Every nation at COP30 agreed unanimously that the global transition is now ‘irreversible’ and this new data is powerful new evidence. With renewable power generation clocking its fastest growth ever, the shift to clean energy is charging ahead, because it’s now cheaper, safer and faster-to-market, in stark contrast to this year’s ongoing fossil fuel cost chaos – driving inflation painfully higher for every economy, millions of businesses and billions of households. But despite this vast progress, the shift to clean energy is still far from fast or inclusive enough, and many vulnerable nations need significant support, making full and timely delivery of all climate finance pledges essential.”

Today’s renewable generation data also confirms the dominance of solar and wind power. In absolute terms, Asia led the world in renewable electricity generation in 2024, producing 4 589 TWh (14.3% increase) driven by all technologies with growth being particularly strong across solar and wind.

Europe produced 1 758 TWh (up by 7.2%), driven by increases in solar and hydropower. North America generated 1 535 TWh (5.8% increase), and South America generated 1 047 TWh (2.9% increase) reflecting increases across all technologies.

Eurasia produced 411 TWh (up by 11.9%). Africa generated 227 TWh (5.7% increase) across all sources except for geothermal energy. Oceania generated 138 TWh (3.4% increase). The Middle East followed with 76 TWh, representing the highest regional growth rate of 17.3%. Lastly, Central America and the Caribbean generated 55 TWh (5.8% increase).

IRENA’s latest statistics also include some minor revisions to the 2025 installed renewable capacities reported in March 2026. 

Annual renewable capacity additions have increased notably over the past 25 years, reaching an unprecedented peak of 693 GW in 2025. The revised figures show that at the end of 2025, renewable capacity accounted for 5.2 TW, or 49.5% of the global total.

The share of renewables in total capacity expansion in 2025 was 85.7%, down from 92.7% in 2024.  Despite a decrease in the share of renewables in total capacity expansion, the overall positive trend in installed capacity confirms that renewable deployment continues to outpace non-renewable growth.

Read the full Renewable Energy Statistics 2026 including the Highlights Document.

Check out IRENA’s dashboards with more renewable energy data per country and technology.

IRENA | https://www.irena.org/

Hydrogen is a crucial industrial feedstock, with global demand reaching nearly 100 million tonnes annually. However, most hydrogen production today remains fossil fuel-based, primarily through steam methane reforming (SMR) and coal gasification (CG). Green hydrogen, produced via water electrolysis powered by renewable electricity, offers one of the most promising pathways for reducing emissions associated with hydrogen production and supporting wider industrial decarbonization efforts. In the new “Green Hydrogen Production & Electrolyzer Market 2027-2037: Technologies, Players, Forecasts” report, IDTechEx forecasts that the global green hydrogen market may reach US$166 billion by 2037, representing a CAGR of 48%.

Despite increasing policy support and ambitious project announcements across major markets, green hydrogen currently accounts for less than 1% of global hydrogen production. Significant expansion of renewable power generation, alongside continued policy support and infrastructure development, will be required for green hydrogen to achieve widespread adoption over the coming decade.

Green hydrogen economics are the primary barrier for wide adoption

The green hydrogen sector has experienced a challenging period in recent years. Numerous announced large-scale projects have been delayed, scaled back, or cancelled, including Air Products' Massena project in New York, US and BP's HyGreen Teesside project in the UK. Developers face challenges associated with weak offtake demand and evolving policy frameworks, particularly in markets such as the US, where shifting policy priorities in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) have increased uncertainty for project developers. At the same time, electrolyzer manufacturers have massively expanded production capacity in previous years, resulting in substantial manufacturing overcapacity across major regions.

The fundamental challenge lies in the economics of green hydrogen production. The cost of green hydrogen production is five to ten times higher than conventional grey hydrogen depending on regions. Renewable electricity costs represent the largest contributor to hydrogen production costs, while electrolyzer capital expenditure also has a significant impact on project economics. Improving system efficiency, reducing equipment costs, and increasing operating utilization are critical to improving cost competitiveness.

This report provides a detailed analysis of green hydrogen economics, including breakdowns of key capital expenditure (CapEx) and operational expenditure (OpEx) contributors, alongside a detailed assessment of electrolyzer stack and balance-of-plant (BoP) components and their impact on overall hydrogen production costs. The report also covers key market trends and analysis of the electrolyzer supply chain and leading OEMs.

Electrolyzer technology landscape and market outlook

Four key electrolyzer technologies are currently competing within the green hydrogen market. Alkaline electrolysis (AEL), proton exchange membrane electrolysis (PEMEL), and anion exchange membrane electrolysis (AEMEL) operate at low temperatures, while solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOEC) represent a high-temperature approach.

Each technology offers different advantages in terms of cost, efficiency, material requirements, operating characteristics, and technology readiness levels (TRLs). AEL is currently the most commercially mature technology, benefiting from low capital costs, established manufacturing supply chains, and proven long-term operation. PEMEL offers higher power densities, rapid response times, and greater operational flexibility, making it particularly attractive for integration with intermittent renewable energy.

On the other hand, AEMEL has emerged as one of the most promising emerging electrolyzer technologies, combining the low-cost material advantages of AEL with the dynamic flexibility of PEMEL. Meanwhile, SOEC technology offers the highest efficiency potential through the high-temperature operation, creating opportunities in industrial sectors where waste heat is readily available and offer synthetic fuel production pathways in the future.

IDTechEx forecast of the green hydrogen market for 2027 and 2037, segmented by technology. Source: IDTechEx.

IDTechEx forecasts the global green hydrogen market will reach US$166 billion by 2037. AEL and PEMEL are expected to remain the dominant technologies throughout the forecast period, supported by their technological maturity and established supply chains. However, the strongest growth is expected from AEMEL and SOEC technologies. As both technologies mature and address current technical limitations, their adoption is expected to accelerate significantly over the forecast period. AEMEL is likely to benefit from improvements in membrane durability and system lifetime, while SOEC is well positioned to establish a market niche in high-temperature industrial sectors where its efficiency advantages can be leveraged.

IDTechEx’s “Green Hydrogen Production & Electrolyzer Market 2027-2037: Technologies, Players, Forecasts” report provides a comprehensive analysis and benchmarking of electrolyzer technologies, alongside granular ten-year forecasts for electrolyzer installation capacity (GW), green hydrogen production capacity (Mtpa), and market value (US$ billion), segmented by technology, application, and region.

Green hydrogen outlook

Despite current manufacturing overcapacity and ongoing project development challenges, IDTechEx believes the long-term outlook for green hydrogen remains positive. Green hydrogen is a heavily policy-driven market, with strengthening regulatory frameworks across major regions continuing to support project development. Key developments include China’s 15th Five-Year Plan and recent improved clarity around RED III implementation in Europe. In parallel, project pipelines are maturing, and industrial demand for low-carbon hydrogen is expected to increase substantially over the coming decade. Together, IDTechEx expects the green hydrogen market to experience sustained long-term growth.

For more information on the Green Hydrogen Production & Electrolyzer Market 2027-2037 report, including downloadable sample pages, please visit www.IDTechEx.com/Electrolyzer, or for the full portfolio of hydrogen-related research available from IDTechEx, see www.IDTechEx.com/Research/Hydrogen. 

IDTechEx | www.idtechex.com