Higher Power PV Modules Drive Up BOS Costs

Wind and solar power have grown faster than almost anyone predicted but projecting their future expansion remains surprisingly difficult. Researchers at Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden, have developed what they call a computational “time machine” – a model that outperforms existing projection methods by using AI techniques to analyse historical growth patterns across countries. Their central projection shows that onshore wind is likely to supply around 25 per cent of global electricity by 2050, with solar reaching about 20 per cent. This is consistent with the 2°C target, but falls short of what is required for 1.5°C.

Predicting the future is particularly challenging for technologies like wind and solar, where rapid cost declines are offset by growing barriers such as public opposition, infrastructure constraints and policy shifts. 

“Existing models are very good at identifying what needs to happen to reach climate targets, but they can’t tell us which developments are most likely. That’s the gap we wanted to fill”, says Jessica Jewell, Professor at Chalmers University of Technology. 

Across more than 200 countries, the researchers identified a recurring pattern in how wind and solar power grow: long periods of relatively steady expansion punctuated by sudden growth spurts often triggered by policy shifts.

“Most models assume a smooth S-shaped growth curve, but that’s not how it actually looks in the real world. Growth often comes in bursts, and if you ignore that, you can misjudge how fast technologies will expand,” says Avi Jakhmola, PhD Student at Chalmers University of Technology and first author of the paper published in Nature Energy.

13,000 virtual worlds for the future

So, with the goal of improving the predictions, Jakhmola created a model built on 13,000 virtual worlds. In each of these worlds, solar and wind power develop in different ways – from the fastest possible expansion to the slowest – and everything in between. A machine learning algorithm was then trained on all these worlds to learn to predict global outcomes from early national trends.

“When we apply the model to real-world data, it can tell us what is the most probable outcome for the future – given what we have seen so far and given all the virtual worlds it has seen”, says Jakhmola.

By 2050, the model projects onshore wind reaching around 26 per cent of global electricity (central range: 20-34 per cent), and solar around 21 per cent (15-29 per cent). This broadly aligns with 2°C-compatible pathways but falls short of what’s needed for 1.5°C.

The projections also put the COP28 pledge to triple renewables capacity by 2030 in perspective. The pledge falls near the 95^th percentile meaning that it would require growth rates rarely observed. 

“The tripling of renewables pledge is not impossible, but it would require everything to go extremely well in all countries”, says Jewell.

The researchers also tested what would actually be required if we are to reach the 1.5°C goal. 

“If we start now, the required growth rates are demanding but not unprecedented, comparable to what the EU targets for wind with REPowerEU and what India has planned for solar power,” says Jakhmola. “But if we delay until 2030, the acceleration needed becomes much steeper and much more abrupt. The window for ramping up closes quickly.” 

Going back in time to ensure the model’s reliability 

The researchers also used the model to test the reliability of its projections – by going back in time. 

“We wanted to know if our projections will hold up ten or twenty years from now. When we fed the model only data from 2015, we found that it correctly predicts what has happened since then. This is what we mean by a ‘computational time machine’ and it gives us real confidence in the projections going forward”, says Jakhmola. 

The study points toward a broader ambition to develop scientifically-rigorous methods for projecting the most likely growth paths for other low-carbon technologies, not just wind and solar.

Jessica Jewell says: “It’s long been a joke how bad technology forecasts are. But if you’re a decision maker, trying to figure out how hard to push for change, you need a realistic baseline. Our study is the first step towards developing such a realistic view of the future.”

More about the research:

The paper 'Probabilistic projections of global wind and solar power growth based on historical national experience',  has been published in Nature Energy. The researchers have also made an online visualisation tool of the results, available at the Energy Technology and Policy website. The authors are Avi Jakhmola,  Jessica Jewell, Vadim Vinichenko and Aleh Cherp. The researchers are active at Chalmers University of Technology and Lund University in Sweden, University of Bergen in Norway, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Central European University in Austria. 

More about the targets and the Paris Climate Agreement:

The Paris Climate Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. It was adopted by 196 Parties at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, France, on 12 December 2015 and entered into force on 4 November 2016. Its overarching goal is to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursue efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”

Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden | https://www.chalmers.se/

DLMS User Association (DLMS UA), a leading voice in interoperable and secure data exchange and the OpenADR Alliance, an open standards body, announced a global liaison agreement to promote interoperable, standards-based energy data exchange at the grid edge. This agreement will support seamless data exchange between the widely trusted and adopted DLMS/COSEM standard for secure smart meter data exchange, and OpenADR's secure, two-way signaling for demand response and distributed energy resources (DER), and flexibility services.

As utilities modernize their grid operations and scale DER and energy flexibility programs, clearly defined interfaces between regulated utility infrastructure and dynamic home and building energy management environments are becoming essential. By connecting a standardized data model with standardized flexibility signaling, this liaison provides a foundation for scalable, interoperable implementations while preserving architectural flexibility and market choice.

With the new agreement, DLMS UA and OpenADR can exchange technical information, review and comment on draft work, set-up ad-hoc technical task forces, and co-ordinate technical activities that advance practical, interoperable, standards-based solutions for flexibility services and consumer energy insights. Both organizations will remain independently governed, preserving their respective programs and certification schemes.

"This marks an important step toward strengthening interoperability at the grid edge," comments Sergio Lazzarotto, President of the DLMS User Association. "DLMS/COSEM provides a robust, internationally recognized data model for smart metering. By establishing a clear and standardized mapping with OpenADR, we are defining a practical interface between revenue grade metering and flexibility markets. This will enable scalable, future-ready solutions while maintaining the rigor required for regulated and metrologically relevant applications."

Rolf Bienert, Managing and Technical Director of the OpenADR Alliance, adds: "For the first time this liaison will create a clear bridging option between smart metering systems and customer-owned flexibility resources. OpenADR strives to keep the customer in charge of the equipment they own and have paid for. We do however recognize the need to incorporate systems with larger consumption into a tighter control mechanism. Bridging DLMS and OpenADR strikes an excellent middle way to achieve both objectives."

Under the agreement, DLMS UA and the OpenADR Alliance will focus on targeted work areas, including technical mapping, international standardization pathways, certification co-ordination, and practical solutions for industry adoption.

Key areas will include:

• Developing a structured mapping between the COSEM and OpenADR data models to ensure consistent interpretation of relevant information across the utility-to-edge interface.

• Working towards the creation of one or several working group(s) within international standards development organization (SDO) to publish and maintain the standardized mapping.

• Assessing the potential benefits of transporting DLMS/COSEM over OpenADR, including use cases involving data with metrological relevance.

• Co-ordinating certification processes, where appropriate, while ensuring that each organization continues to manage its own certification programs independently.

OpenADR Alliance | https://www.openadr.org/

DLMS User Association | https://www.dlms.com/#section_ee76f255

A landmark 300 MW / 1,200 MWh standalone energy storage project powered by Sineng Electric is in commercial operation in northwest China. The project marks a significant advancement in facilitating high levels of renewable energy integration while strengthening grid stability, underscoring the strategic role of large-scale energy storage in modern power systems.

Located in Zhangye City, China, an area rich in wind and solar resources, the project directly addresses structural challenges associated with high renewable penetration, including intermittency, grid congestion, and limited transmission capacity. Persistent imbalances between daytime photovoltaic generation surplus and evening peak demand have historically led to renewable energy curtailment. The deployment of utility-scale energy storage provides a critical pathway to mitigate these constraints by enabling temporal energy shifting and enhancing grid flexibility.

The project is equipped with Sineng Electric’s 1,250 kW central PCS, designed to deliver high-efficiency energy conversion and superior system adaptability. With a peak efficiency of 99%, the PCS ensures optimized performance across a wide operating voltage range while minimizing conversion losses. It reduces the number of parallel battery clusters by 50%, effectively increasing system charge and discharge capacity by 0.75% and improving overall lifecycle energy utilization.

Engineered for deployment in harsh environments, the PCS is equipped with an IP65 protection rating to withstand sand and dust conditions in the Gobi Desert. In addition, the solution offers millisecond-level dynamic response capability, enabling rapid and precise support for grid ancillary services, including frequency regulation and power balancing.

As a four-hour long-duration energy storage system, the project can store up to 1.2 million kWh of renewable electricity per charge-discharge cycle. On an annual basis, it is expected to reduce curtailed wind and solar generation by more than 79 million kWh, thereby significantly enhancing renewable energy utilization and grid absorption capacity in Gansu Province.

Following commissioning, the project will play a critical role in peak shaving, load shifting, frequency regulation, and renewable output smoothing, contributing to improved grid reliability and operational efficiency. This project demonstrates Sineng Electric’s continued commitment to advancing high-performance energy storage technologies and supporting the global transition toward a low-carbon energy system. As the power sector evolves toward greater decarbonization, grid-scale energy storage will remain a cornerstone in enabling a flexible, resilient, and sustainable energy future.

Sineng Electric | https://en.si-neng.com/

Solar Landscape, the nation’s leading commercial and industrial rooftop solar and storage independent power producer, has announced the closing of a $117 million preferred tax equity investment with Nuveen Energy Infrastructure Credit (Nuveen EIC), marking the second major transaction between the two firms in less than twelve months.

Under the terms of the transaction, Nuveen EIC has committed $117 million to Solar Landscape at close. That commitment will be augmented with an expected $120 million of tax credit transfer proceeds that together with Nuveen’s preferred tax equity investment will support the construction and operation of a 145MW portfolio of community solar assets sited on commercial and industrial rooftops across Maryland, Illinois, New Jersey and Minnesota, reflecting Solar Landscape's continued momentum and market leadership in the distributed generation space.

The investment will span two years of capital deployment for a strategically important subset of Solar Landscape’s project execution and is structured to simplify the monetization of distributed generation tax credits, eliminating the need for traditional tax equity financing and enabling Solar Landscape to deploy capital more efficiently across its growing portfolio of operating assets.

"We’re happy to announce the closing of this important investment to support the continued expansion of new energy generation solutions with our commercial real estate partners in several of our core markets," said Clayton Avent, Chief Financial Officer of Solar Landscape. “We are proud to deepen our relationship with Nuveen, a best-in-class institutional investor, as we scale the deployment of distributed power to deliver new capacity fast to meet rising energy demand across the U.S.”

"We're excited to partner with Solar Landscape for the second time in the past year to provide a preferred tax equity solution that helps maximize value in community solar assets," said Don Dimitrievich, Head of Nuveen Energy Infrastructure Credit. "Our ability to scale capital alongside their growth is helping Solar Landscape continue to deploy community solar assets with market-leading operational excellence. For Nuveen EIC, preferred tax equity is a strategic priority, and this investment reflects the firm's disciplined approach of supporting high-quality distributed generation assets managed by best-in-class operators. We look forward to continuing our long-term relationship with the team."

Solar Landscape | solarlandscape.com

Ameresco, Inc., (NYSE: AMRC), a leading energy infrastructure solutions provider, together with its joint venture partner Sunel Group, announced the launch of an 83 MW solar installation in Kozani, Greece. The large-scale renewable energy project is set to significantly enhance the region’s energy resiliency while supporting Greece’s transition toward a decarbonized future.

Ameresco SUNEL Energy SA was awarded with an Engineering Procurement and Construction contract (EPC) by Luxcara, a leading German energy infrastructure asset manager, holding the majority stake of the project. The Kozani solar project is designed to ensure high-efficiency energy generation while delivering long-term environmental and financial benefits. Nearly 130,000 photovoltaic modules will be installed on a one-axis tracking system to optimize energy yield. By tracking the position of the sun throughout the day, tracker-mounted PV modules can optimize energy capture and maximize efficiency. The EPC also includes Medium Voltage (MV) grid connection and an extension of the 400/33 kV High Voltage (HV) substation, reinforcing the region’s grid reliability and energy distribution capabilities. Construction works are already underway.

“Greece is one of the sunniest countries in Europe, making it an ideal location for solar energy projects that can drive both national and regional sustainability goals,” said Pete Christakis, Chief Operating Officer at Ameresco. “By leveraging advanced solar tracking technology in a region rich in sunlight, the Kozani project is set to play a significant role in fortifying Greece’s renewable energy infrastructure and supporting Europe’s broader green energy transition.”

“Projects like this reflect the growing maturity of the Greek renewable energy market, where scale, structure, and long-term stability are becoming increasingly important. As Ameresco SUNEL Energy, we are focused on supporting this shift by delivering projects that meet the evolving expectations of international investors,” said Konstantinos Zygouras, Vice President of Ameresco SUNEL.

“Ameresco SUNEL Energy SA has been a trusted partner in advancing our solar investment in Greece,” said Lorenz Hahn, Investment Manager at Luxcara. “This project shows how well‑targeted solar investments can support economic development while strengthening Greece’s clean energy infrastructure. By unlocking the region’s strong solar potential, we are helping build a more resilient, domestically powered energy future.”

Ameresco | www.ameresco.com

SUNEL Group | www.sunelgroup.com

ZincFive, the world leader in nickel-zinc (NiZn) battery-based solutions for immediate power applications, has surpassed 2 gigawatts (GW) in power delivered or contracted globally, reinforcing the growing adoption of nickel-zinc as a preferred alternative to legacy battery technologies in data center infrastructure.

This milestone reflects accelerating customer demand for solutions that deliver high power density, superior safety, and long-term sustainability without compromise. Compared to lead-acid and lithium-ion systems, ZincFive’s patented nickel-zinc chemistry offers a compact footprint and delivers lower lifecycle emissions without the risk of thermal runaway – making it an increasingly strategic choice for modern power architectures.

That momentum is further driven by ZincFive’s expanding portfolio. The BC Series, including the BC 2 AI battery cabinet, is designed to support both traditional backup requirements and, increasingly, AI-driven dynamic power environments. In parallel, the recently announced NiZn Retrofit Kit extends these benefits to existing infrastructure, which will enable operators to easily upgrade lead-acid systems within the same cabinet footprint, reducing cost, complexity, and disruption across brownfield data center environments.

“As ZincFive continues to scale, surpassing 2 gigawatts reflects both the performance of our technology and the confidence our customers place in it,” said Tod Higinbotham, CEO of ZincFive. “As global adoption accelerates, we are scaling to meet demand while continuing to advance battery technology that delivers performance, safety, and sustainability without tradeoffs.”

To support this growth, ZincFive continues to expand its manufacturing and operational capabilities to meet increasing global demand.

ZincFive’s leadership in nickel-zinc technology has been widely recognized, including multiple appearances on TIME’s America’s and World’s Top GreenTech Companies lists, an Edison Award for Resilient and Sustainable Solutions, and CleanTech Breakthrough’s Overall Innovation of the Year Award, among others.

ZincFive | www.zincfive.com

Prysmian | Encore Wire, a world leader in the energy transition and digital transformation, recently held a ribbon cutting ceremony to officially unveil its new 340,800 square-foot Copper Building Wire Plant and expanded Service Center in McKinney, Texas. Now the largest in the industry at one million square feet, the Service Center enhances the company’s ability to deliver high-quality products with speed, precision, and efficiency.

The Encore Campus and its unique business model play a critical role in Prysmian’s transformation from a cable manufacturer into a comprehensive solutions provider. By combining advanced manufacturing with industry-leading logistics, the company is well positioned to support critical energy priorities, including data center growth, U.S. industrial expansion, and grid modernization.

“It is a very historic moment today here in McKinney as we celebrate our new Plant and the expansion of our Service Center,” said Andrea Pirondini, CEO of Prysmian North America. “These two projects represent the next chapter in our story here at Encore: one of outstanding service across the board – service to our customers and to the community here in McKinney that we call home.”

The expanded Service Center enables next-day shipments and advanced customization capabilities, while the addition of the Copper Building Wire Plant further strengthens operational efficiency and responsiveness. Together, these investments are driving economic growth in the greater McKinney area through increased industrial output and continued local investment.

The new facilities reflect Prysmian’s ongoing commitment to customer-focused operations, innovation, and strong community partnerships, while also highlighting the people and vision driving Prysmian | Encore Wire’s leadership in the wire and cable industry.

“The new Copper Building Wire Plant is powered by approximately 115 dedicated employees working around the clock to deliver the high-quality products our customers expect,” said Paul Furtado, COO of Prysmian North America. “Just next door, more than 250 employees in our expanded Service Center ensure the wire and cable reach our customers where and when they need it. We’re grateful to our employees who help make our operations a success every day, and whose dedication makes milestones like this possible.”

In total, Prysmian | Encore Wire employs around 1,750 people across its McKinney campus.

Prysmian | Encore Wire | www.encorewire.com