We Are Unlikely to Achieve Net Zero by 2050

Each year, AIEN hosts an annual lecture series in honor of Alfred J. Boulos, former AIEN president and highly-regarded international energy negotiator. This year, at the International Energy Summit in Istanbul, Türkiye, Dr. Pedro van Meurs, Petroleum Economist, Van Meurs Energy, was invited to give the lecture.

He shared his forecast on carbon neutrality targets,  the place of the petroleum industry in a carbon-neutral world and the future of petroleum agreements.

‘The end of the 80s and beginning of the 90s was a difficult time for energy companies. But now we understand that the future of petroleum energy will rely on how seamlessly we integrate into the energy transition while maintaining a viable petroleum industry.

‘If we agree that we need to reach net zero, we need to change from “petroleum agreements” to “petroleum energy agreements”. But it is unlikely we will achieve net zero across the world by 2050.

‘Countries such as China, India, Nigeria, Russia etc aren’t even trying – they are aiming for 2060. Other countries simply do not have the funds to finance the necessary projects. 

‘I think it is possible for net zero to be achieved on or before 2070. One of the main reasons behind this will be the rapid development in solar energy. 2023 was a banner year for solar energy, with investment in this sector being larger than all other energy sources combined.

‘My forecast for energy production by 2070 is that there will essentially be no growth due to much higher efficiencies in energy use.

‘For oil, my forecast is that in 2070 we will still have a significant petroleum industry. It is simply not a good policy for countries to stop all oil exploration. But nations forget that oil and gas isn’t just used for energy – there are lots of non-energy products in the petrochemical industry, such as plastics. So, we will need a strong petroleum industry to keep providing non-energy products.’

But Dr Pedro van Meurs also sounded a note of caution to his predictions. ‘There is a huge margin of uncertainty in these forecasts, mainly because the future is highly uncertain. Yes, there is political uncertainty, but also any new discoveries can occur that would totally change the energy situation, so it is very hard to predict the future!’

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