According to the the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) September Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because mitigation and reopening efforts related to the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continue to evolve. Reduced economic activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic has caused changes in energy demand and supply patterns in 2020. This STEO assumes U.S. gross domestic product declined by 4.6% in the first half of 2020 from the same period a year ago and will rise beginning in the third quarter of 2020, with year-over-year growth of 3.1% in 2021. The U.S. macroeconomic assumptions in this outlook are based on forecasts by IHS Markit.

EIA forecasts 2.4% less electricity consumption in the United States in 2020 compared with 2019. EIA expects retail sales of electricity to fall by 6.4% this year in the commercial sector and by 6.0% in the industrial sector. EIA forecasts residential sector retail sales will increase by 3.5% in 2020. Milder winter temperatures earlier in the year led to lower consumption for space heating, but that factor is offset by increased summer cooling demand and an increase in electricity use by more people working from home. In 2021, EIA forecasts total U.S. electricity consumption will be similar to the 2020 level of consumption.

EIA expects the share of U.S. electric power sector generation from natural gas-fired power plants will increase from 37% in 2019 to 39% this year. In 2021, the forecast natural gas share declines to 34% in response to higher natural gas prices. Coal's forecast share of electricity generation falls from 24% in 2019 to 20% in 2020 and then increases to 22% in 2021. Electricity generation from renewable energy sources rises from 17% in 2019 to 20% in 2020 and to 22% in 2021. The increase in the share from renewables is the result of planned additions to wind and solar generating capacity. EIA expects a decline in nuclear generation in both 2020 and 2021, reflecting recent and planned retirements of nuclear generating capacity.

EIA forecasts that renewable energy will be the fastest-growing source of electricity generation in 2020. EIA expects the electric power sector will add 23.3 gigawatts (GW) of new wind capacity and 13.7 GW of utility-scale solar capacity in 2020.

EIA forecasts that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, after decreasing by 2.8% in 2019, will decrease by 10.0% (512 million metric tons) in 2020 with reduced consumption of all fossil fuels, particularly coal (18.3%) and petroleum (11.7%). This decline in emissions is the result of less energy consumption related to restrictions on business and travel activity and slowing economic growth related to COVID-19 mitigation efforts. In 2021, EIA forecasts that energy-related CO2 emissions will increase by 4.8% as the economy recovers and energy use increases.

U.S. Energy Information Administration | www.eia.gov