Better forecasting of weather, load, or prices for renewable energy projects

DNV GL has developed an advanced stochastic engine which produces modeling inputs that owners, utilities, and system operators can use to model scenarios based upon hundreds of thousands of years of representative wind and solar production that captures the full spectrum of possible weather conditions, load, or prices. The tool generates these modeling inputs by using historic weather, load, and pricing conditions, preserving the daily, seasonal, and annual cycles of the original dataset, as well as other correlations such as wind speed, temperature, or load. The large number of sequences, about 10,000 individual years of data, provides the full spectrum of possible scenarios to enable project owners, utilities, and system operators to make more informed strategic decisions about financing, acquisitions, and planning. Because the outputs represent an equally realistic view of thousands of actual time series, this data can be used to answer a range of questions, from what type of technologies to invest in to mitigating price risk.




Volume: 2020 March/April