Highlights include:

Elecriticty, coal, renewables, and emissions

• EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants to rise from 32% in 2017 to 35% in 2018 and to 36% in 2019. EIA forecasts that the electricity generation share from coal will average 28% in 2018 and 26% in 2019, down from 30% in 2017. The nuclear share of generation was 20% in 2017 and EIA forecasts that it will average about 19% in 2018 and in 2019. Wind, solar, and other nonhydropower renewables provided slightly less than 10% of electricity generation in 2017. EIA expects them to provide more than 10% in 2018, and nearly 11% in 2019. The generation share of hydropower was 7% in 2017, and EIA forecasts that it will be about the same in 2018 and in 2019.

• EIA expects total U.S. solar generation will rise from 212,000 Megawatt hours per day (MWh/d) in 2017 to 268,000 MWh/d in 2018 (an increase of 27%) and to 303,000 MWh/d in 2019 (an increase of 13%). In recent years, the industry has seen a shift from fixed-tilt solar PV systems to tracking systems. Although tracking systems are more expensive than fixed-tilt systems, revenue from the additional electricity generated by following the path of the sun across the sky often exceeds the increased cost.

• U.S. coal exports for the first eight months of 2018 totaled 78 million short tons (MMst), compared with 60 MMst exported during the same period in 2017. EIA expects coal exports to total 110 MMst in 2018 and 100 MMst in 2019, and EIA expects coal production will total 756 MMst in 2018 (down 2% from 2017) and 729 MMst in 2019 (down 4% from 2018).

• After declining by 0.8% in 2017, EIA forecasts that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will rise by 2.5% in 2018. This increase largely reflects higher natural gas consumption in 2018 because of a colder winter and a warmer summer than in 2017. EIA expects emissions to decline by 1.3% in 2019 because temperatures are forecast to return to normal. Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to changes in weather, economic growth, energy prices, and fuel mix.

U.S. Energy Information Administration | www.eia.gov