In the wake of recent tax credits and other financial incentives, geothermal energy now provides 2,856 MW of operating generation in the U.S., up from 2,751 MW operating in September 2013. However, over that same period, planned capacity has dropped to 3,333 MW from 4,419 MW when SNL's previous geothermal development analysis was conducted, undercutting what has been a resurgence in geothermal development over the past decade.

With the expiration of the production tax credit on Dec. 31, 2013, it is still unclear how geothermal development will fare down the road. So far, no new geothermal capacity has been added since the end of 2013. However, recent federal funding for programs aimed at developing enhanced geothermal systems, or EGS, may help geothermal play a more important role in renewable energy generation. The technology also remains eligible for a 10% investment tax credit.

The long development periods for geothermal plants make it difficult to set a definitive completion date. Of the 3,333 MW in development, almost 66% of capacity is without a firm online date. However, more projects are in advanced development now than there were a year ago when SNL Energy last conducted this analysis, making it more likely for these plants to be completed. A project is considered in advanced development when two of the following five criteria have been achieved: financing is in place, a power purchase agreement is signed, turbines are secured, required permits are approved or a contractor signs on to the project. So far, 412 MW of capacity is in advanced development, with 120 MW expected to come online by the end of this year.

The 120-MW Newberry Demonstration EGS plant in Deschutes County, Ore., is one of the two largest geothermal projects. It is owned by Davenport Newberry and AltaRock. The Salt Wells power plant, also with 120 MW in development, is in Churchill County, Nevada, and is owned by Ormat Technologies Inc. and Ormat Industries Ltd. However, only the 3-MW Paisley Geothermal Power plant is officially under construction, making it most likely to be the next completed project. Paisley Geothermal Power in Lake County, Ore., is owned by Surprise Valley Electrification Corp. Of the 415 MW in advanced development or under construction, roughly 66%, or 272 MW, is located in Nevada.


Keep reading the full report and analysis here.

SNL Financial
www.snl.com